There’s a storm coming. You can hear it on the horizon; as much as $100 million is about to descend on Nevada this weekend in the form of Super Bowl XLIV wagers. The online sports gambling community will be even busier. All told, across the world, we’re talking billions of dollars on one single football game.

Many of the sharper knives in the drawer have already placed their bets. But for a change, it looks like the larger betting public is going to have an impact on the Super Bowl betting line. The Indianapolis Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) were 6-point favorites (EVEN) as we went to press; you can already see the public starting to come in on the New Orleans Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS), given that the juice on the Colts was –105 at the open and –115 a week ago. If you’re leaning toward Indianapolis in this game, you might find a better price even closer to kick-off. Sometimes it does pay to get in late.

Saints supporters might also feel emboldened by the news that Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney has a sprained right ankle and was held out of practice Wednesday. Freeney is officially listed as questionable, as is CB Jerraud Powers (foot), but the spotlight is definitely on Freeney’s ongoing rehabilitation. The five-time Pro Bowler recorded 13.5 sacks this year and would be sorely missed if he can’t play Sunday. Speculation is rampant, but Freeney’s status is entirely up in the air at this point. That uncertainty itself is enough to give the Saints at least some value against the NFL odds.

New Orleans doesn’t go into this game with a complete bill of health, but No. 4 RB Lynell Hamilton (ankle) was the only active Saint to miss Wednesday’s practice. TE Jeremy Shockey (48 catches, three TDs) had what appeared to be a full practice despite a bruised knee and should be able to play Sunday. QB Drew Brees (34 TDs, 11 INTs, 109.6 passer rating) will have pretty much all his weapons at his disposal. That includes the No. 1 rushing attack in the league, led by RB Pierre Thomas at 5.4 yards per carry.

Run defense is supposed to be Indy’s soft underbelly, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the past two playoff games. The Colts held the Baltimore Ravens (the No. 4 rushing team in the NFL) to 87 yards on 19 carries in the Divisional Round, then the New York Jets (No. 11 rushing) could only muster 86 yards on 29 carries in the Conference Championships. Indianapolis covered both times. Although Freeney’s primary task is as a pass rusher, the Colts defensive line might find it difficult to duplicate these numbers against New Orleans without him at full strength.

The Indianapolis version of the Cover-2 defense will also be vulnerable if Brees is given enough time in the pocket. Otherwise, let’s take you back to 2007, when the Colts beat the Saints 41-10 as 5.5-point home faves. Those 10 points came from a defensive TD and a field goal; Brees was 28-of-41 for 192 yards and a pair of interceptions, while Peyton Manning (18-of-30, 288 yards) found the end zone three times with no picks. The Saints have made welcome strides on defense over the past three years, but this is pretty much the same offense taking the field Sunday in Miami.

Given the styles of these two clubs, it’s interesting to see a total of 57 points up on the board – the biggest Super Bowl total of all time, and up a half-point from the open. Yes, Brees and Manning have been sensational this year, but both teams are going to chew up some clock on the ground as well. It’s especially difficult to picture Brees going OVER his total of 300.5 passing yards on the Super Bowl props market. Brees is more about accuracy than arm strength; he hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark since Week 13 against the Washington Redskins, and he didn’t even reach 200 yards in his last meeting with the Colts. The betting public is prone to exaggeration when it comes to offense, so take a close look at our NFL player props and team props to see where you can get some value for being pessimistic.

As for the game itself, there’s every reason for optimism that it’ll be a classic. We’ll be there with live Super Bowl betting from the opening kick-off to the final gun; CBS has the TV at 6:25 p.m. Eastern.