Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

Heisman Trophy Betting Update

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Week six of the college football betting season erased whatever degree of clarity that might have existed in the Heisman race at the halfway stage of the campaign.

The clear leader –but not the runaway leader –of the Heisman chase entering week six was Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. It was said last week in this space that Robinson would need to beat quality defenses after running wild against Connecticut – which has continued to struggle on defense since a week-one debacle against Michigan – and other mediocre defenses from Bowling Green, Massachusetts, and Indiana.

Notre Dame offered the only half-decent defense that Robinson outclassed, so as the teeth of Michigan’s Big Ten schedule arrived, Robinson encountered an entirely new and different level of competition.

Following a train wreck against Michigan State in which he threw three interceptions and produced only 17 points, it’s clear that Robinson’s early pyrotechnics against weak defenses were clearly overrated.

Denard Robinson is still very much an elite player. You don’t do what he’s done without being really special. However, one also shouldn’t be excessively praised for making a string of tomato-can defenses look bad. Excellence at the highest level of any sport is determined by consistency to a certain extent – that’s entirely true. However, the supreme measure of greatness is found in competition against worthy opposition. A Michigan quarterback should be measured by his performances against Michigan State… and Ohio State… and Iowa… and Wisconsin, not by Mid-American Conference opponents (such as Bowling Green), FCS opponents (UMass), or a Connecticut team that just lost to Rutgers and has exposed itself as a pretty mediocre outfit in 2010.

It would be a severe overreaction to pronounce Denard Robinson’s Heisman candidacy as officially dead. The other point is just as true, however: It was a severe overreaction to think that Denard Robinson had no competition in the Heisman Trophy race.

The Heisman is muddled at this point. There’s no real frontrunner. Denard Robinson is still in the lead pack, but he has company in Oregon’s LaMichael James, Ohio State’s Terelle Pryor, LSU’s Patrick Peterson, and – albeit by a thread – Alabama’s Mark Ingram, who took a huge hit (nearly a fatal one) with his team’s loss at South Carolina. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is still in the mix, but he’ll need to be spectacular each and every week while the rest of the nation’s main contenders falter in November.

Some commentators have mentioned Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez, but the Huskers’signal caller is a terrible thrower who has also suffered through an absolutely miserable performance against FCS-based South Dakota State earlier this season. Auburn’s Cameron Newton deserves to be mentioned in the Heisman race, but he’ll have to beat two very good defenses from LSU and Alabama while looking good in the process. Winning the SEC West would go a long way toward increasing Newton’s chances. Such an accomplishment would at least give Newton a good shot at receiving a plane ticket to New York on the second weekend of December. Andrew Luck of Stanford is in the conversation, but just barely.

We’ll see what the coming weeks do to change the Heisman equation. It’s very cloudy and murky right now.

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