Here we are again, my friends. It’s the mother of all games and the biggest single day in online sports gambling. Super Bowl XLIV is just two Sundays from now, and this isn’t your garden-variety Super Bowl, either. The Indianapolis Colts will meet the New Orleans Saints in a battle of the No. 1 seeds from the AFC and NFC. This is the first time two No. 1s have faced each other in 17 years. Let the pregame begin.
The Spread
We opened on Monday with the Colts pegged at -6 (-105), but it didn’t take long for the juice to revert to the standard -110 under pressure from Indianapolis supporters. And yes, there are a lot of them. Early consensus reports showed 72 percent of the action on the Colts. The OVER is raking it in as usual with 84 percent support on the total of 56.5 points. This is easily the highest total Indianapolis has seen all season; not so for the Saints, who had a total of 57 during their Divisional Round matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. Both their playoff games have gone OVER.
The Colts
Indianapolis finished the regular season with the best record in the league at 14-2 (10-5-1 ATS). But the Colts could have done better; they punted the last two games by pulling their starters, rather than risk them suffering an injury in pursuit of an undefeated season. Their continued dominance in the playoffs has emboldened bettors enough to move the NFL betting line very close to what we saw in Super Bowl XLIII, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were 6.5-point faves over the lightly regarded Cardinals. Favorites, by the way, are 28-15 SU and 23-18-2 ATS at the Super Bowl.
The Colts bring to the table one of the best passing offenses in the league, led by four-time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning (99.9 passer rating), who will be prominently featured in our NFL Player Props section over the next two weeks. The running game has been less impressive with Joseph Addai (3.8 yards per carry) getting most of the touches, but new coach Jim Caldwell has wisely stuck to a balanced game plan.
The Indianapolis defense has had its ups and downs this year. Without injured safety Bob Sanders in the lineup, the Colts have fallen from No. 10 to No. 16 in defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. This has been enough of a problem to force Manning to engineer a number of comeback victories. Seven of the Colts’ wins during the regular season were by four points or fewer.
The Saints
New Orleans was likewise on track for an undefeated season, but the Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) put a stop to that in Week 15 with a 24-17 win at the Superdome. The Saints proceeded to lose their last two games to end the regular season at 13-3 (8-8 ATS). Handicappers who picked the right time to jump off the bandwagon were rewarded, as New Orleans started the year 6-0 ATS, then hit the skids at 2-8 ATS. The Saints split the cash in their two postseason games, steamrolling Arizona (+7) before needing overtime to get past the Minnesota Vikings (+4) in the Conference Championship. This is the first Super Bowl in Saints history; first-timers are 8-19 SU and 10-17 ATS at the Big Game.
This is another one of the NFL’s most prodigious offenses in a year where offense has been king. Drew Brees was a leading MVP candidate and led the league for the second year in a row with 34 touchdown passes. His 109.6 passer rating was also tops in the NFL. But there’s more where that came from. The Saints also have the top-ranked rushing team in the nation with Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry), Mike Bell (3.8 yards), and Reggie Bush (5.6 yards) all making contributions.
New Orleans has made some great strides on defense this year, improving from No. 26 in efficiency to No. 14, but there are still some issues in the Big Easy. The run defense has been knocked for a loop by the injuries to both linebacker Scott Fujita (knee) and his replacement, JoLonn Dunbar (hamstring). Adrian Peterson ventilated the Saints for 122 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday. The team with the greater number of rushing attempts at the Super Bowl has won over 70 percent of the time.
Again, make sure to check in for our bonanza of Super Bowl props for players and teams. Live sports betting will be on tap for every single play; CBS has the game starting at 6:25 p.m. Eastern.
bet on the Superbowl at Bodog Sportsbook
Comments