In politics, the incumbent has the advantage going into an election. In baseball, the incumbent is the 2009 World Series champion New York Yankees. The Yankees operate much like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: outspending the competition on resources, enlarging their media footprint, and maximizing revenues to keep the machine rolling. Who would bet against the Yankees in 2010?

Millions of people. The Yankees are the clear favorites on the World Series futures market, but those 3-1 odds leave plenty of room in the marketplace for other powerful teams. The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are tied for second favorite status at 13-2; like New York, these are two large-market clubs with nine-figure payrolls who went deep into the 2009 postseason. You can buy both these teams together and still get a bigger potential return than you would with just the Yankees in your portfolio.

The Phillies (93-69, +4.47 units last year) have established something of a dynasty in the National League, winning three NL East titles in a row, back-to-back pennants, and the 2008 World Series. That success made Philadelphia an attractive enough destination for the Phillies to land Roy Halladay as an upgrade over Cliff Lee, who’s no slouch himself:

Bill James projections for 2010

Halladay: 17-10, 3.23 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.14 WHIP
Lee: 14-11, 3.81 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.30 WHIP

Philadelphia has made other relatively cosmetic changes to its talent core, making this team a stable commodity as 4-7 favorites in the otherwise turbulent NL East. You can also get the Phillies at MLB odds of 3-1 to win the pennant, a riskier proposition in a group that includes the St. Louis Cardinals (5-1) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (8-1), the other division champions from 2009. The Cardinals have a clear path to retaining the NL Central as 4-7 favorites; the Dodgers are 3-1 in the West after an exodus of free agents, although L.A. held onto its most important assets, like outfielders Matt Kemp (.842 OPS in 2009) and Andre Ethier (.869 OPS).

The Red Sox (95-67, 10.63 units) have entrenched themselves even more deeply than Philadelphia in the MLB power structure. They’ve benefited greatly from the Wild Card rule; Boston finished second to the Yankees in the AL East five times in the last seven years, and all five times Boston took the Wild Card to the postseason. Under general manager Theo Epstein, the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2007. Epstein has proved to the betting world what you can do with Moneyball when you’re given actual money to spend.

Defense remains the buzzword in sharp baseball circles for 2010, and the Sox have improved up the middle with shortstop Marco Scutaro (+31 FRAR for Toronto last year), center fielder Mike Cameron (+21 FRAR for Milwaukee) and pitcher John Lackey (3.73 FIP, 1.27 WHIP for the Angels). Epstein also brought in Adrian Beltre (+20 FRAR for Seattle) to play the hot corner. These defensive improvements will go a long way toward replacing the bat of Jason Bay (.921 OPS), who signed as a free agent with the New York Mets. However, the betting public is fixated on offense and appears pessimistic about Boston’s offseason makeover.

The Red Sox also have a tougher path than the Phillies to become champions. Aside from the Yankees, the American League is full of landmines like the Tampa Bay Rays, who won the AL East and the pennant in 2008 before losing the World Series to Philadelphia. The Rays (84-78, -9.45 units) have gone from laughing stock to contender since Andrew Friedman took over as GM in 2005. Tampa Bay has betting value at 5-1 playing third fiddle to New York (8-11) and Boston (7-4) in the East, and arguably more value further on at 10-1 for the pennant or 18-1 for the World Series.

Also looming as AL pennant contenders are the Seattle Mariners (8-1) and the Los Angeles Angels (9-1), who appear destined to lock horns in the West. The Mariners (85-77, 11.91 units) made giant steps in GM Jack Zduriencik’s first season at the controls – again with an emphasis on defense – and the acquisition of Lee was just one of several smart moves for 2010 by his front office. The Angels (97-65, 21.76 units) lost Lackey to the Red Sox and Chone Figgins (+36 FRAR) to the Mariners and should come back to the pack after three straight division titles. Can either of them beat the Yankees? In a short series, anything can happen and often does.