As we continue with College Football Betting 101, where some of the worst “running up of scores” still happens when teams have candidates in a Heisman race, for which only writers and former Heisman winners vote.
That is an entirely human element. People are impressed by big numbers in big conferences, and if someone runs up gargantuan numbers in small conferences, that can sometimes get attention too.
Not much consideration is paid to the importance of the individual performances, relative to the caliber of opponent.
There is little analysis of what the numbers really mean – hey, if the writers could really do an analysis, they would be college football bettors, which they are not.
Anyway, it makes sense that Heisman candidates with ground to make up will do whatever they can to run up numbers, and are in a good position to do so against inferior opponents.
The coaches and programs will cooperate, because it means more prestige for both to have a Heisman winner or even a candidate.
I worked that into my handicapping with Hawaii a few years ago, where QB Colt Brennan, who put up record-breaking numbers, made a late Heisman charge.
I won a couple of Hawaii games in my college football betting, not by laying the points with the Rainbows, but by grabbing the “over” on the total.
I used some of this rationale again later that year with West Virginia, when they played Pittsburgh in the annual “Backyard Brawl.” Steve Slaton, West Virginia’s star running back who has since gone to the Houston Texans, was certainly a brilliant college player, and a legitimate Heisman contender, but he has been sitting well behind Troy Smith, who has been playing virtually error-free football for undefeated Ohio State.
Slaton needed to impress somebody to get some votes. I considered West Virginia’s outstanding quarterback, Patrick White, to be a contender as well, although apparently no one else really did.
West Virginia was laying 10.5 points on the road, which generally I would consider a tough proposition in a traditional rivalry game.
The field was in awful condition, which is not a real good thing for the spread option West Virginia used under Rich Rodriguez.
There was no doubt in my mind the Mountaineers were the better team on the field, but I was also a little worried about the “back door” capabilities of Pittsburgh with its outstanding passer, Tyler Palko.
But I felt there was a major bulwark against that; the sense that West Virginia would leave Slaton and White in the game longer than usual, regardless of whether it was a close game or not, as a way of building the numbers, especially for Slaton, in the Heisman campaign.
Slaton got off to a slow start running from scrimmage, running for just seven yards in the first half. But White, who was a better passer than anyone gave him credit for, went to him through the air, with explosive results.
He had 130 receiving yards, including two TD catches from White, then went to work rushing the football in the second half.
And White, who was suffering from turf toe, took off on a few long runs of his own.
Final stats: Slaton – six catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns; 215 rushing yards and two MORE touchdowns.
White – 11-16 for 204 yards and two TD’s (to Slaton) passing; 22 rushes for 220 yards and two TD’s. Incredible. And both, as expected, played deep into the game.
Final score: West Virginia 45, Pittsburgh 27. That’s what is called a “cover” in college football betting jargon.
It’s important to use those kinds of things to your advantage when engaging in college football wagering.
When individual awards are at stake, it’s not just whether you win or lose, it’s sometimes how you look on the stat sheet. And in certain kinds of games, that has a residual effect on final scores and pointspreads.
Along the way you will invariably come across some positive winning situations with sizable favorites, because that’s the way the voting works, and consequently, the way it can work for you as a college football bettor.
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