For clues on how to go in the preseason, and detecting NFL betting trends for that time of year, you may want to take a look at newly-hired coaches or those who find themselves on the hot seat. Often, when a coach gets a new job, which is more likely than not with a floundering program and an unstable franchise, he knows he is being scrutinized from the start, and sometimes that results in a motivation to play well in the preseason and develop a “winning attitude.” It is quite likely that Jim Schwartz felt some of this last season as he took over with the Detroit Lions. Schwartz guided Detroit to three wins and one defeat over the preseason slate, with the only loss coming at the hands of the Cleveland Browns, who were headed up by another guy in his first year on the job, Erik Mangini. I think it was probably an aberration (contrary to what might be an expected NFL betting trend) that the Lions covered only one of their games, as they captured two one-point decisions as the betting favorite. Then Detroit went on to win two games in the regular season.

The year before, Rod Marinelli felt the pressure too, as he was on the hot seat. Even though he was in his third year on the job, he felt he had to establish some momentum in order to build on the improvements his team had made in 2008, when the Lions went 7-9. In the ‘08 preseason, Detroit won all four games, with the closest victory a three-point decision over the Giants in the first week. They went 3-0-1 against the spread. There was lots of hope in the Motor City, from the media and fans alike. Believe me; I saw it. From that preseason success, laymen wondered whether the Lions were “turning the corner.” They turned the corner alright, but it was in reverse gear. They went 0-16, and that brought on Marinelli’s firing and the hiring of Schwartz. In that case, there surely was no NFL betting trend that could be culled from what his team did when nothing was officially on the line.

One guy who didn’t seem to feel the heat at all, at least by what he did in the preseason, was Ken Whisenhunt of the Arizona Cardinals. If you recall, he took over a franchise that was in a state of disarray after things fell apart under Dennis Green. And there was a new stadium that had to be filled. Yet, Whisenhunt, who had hoped to win the Steelers’ job but lost out to Mike Tomlin, conducted his preseason in a way that belied a coach who felt no pressure to perform in the games that didn’t count, and this showed a departure from the philosophy of Green, whose overall NFL betting trend had been to win and cover in the exhibition slate. Whisenhunt’s first Arizona team gave up 114 points in four preseason games and dropped three of them against the number (gaining a push in the other one). Arizona went 2-2 both SU and ATS in ‘08, but as a team that had gone to the Super Bowl and had little to prove in the preseason, the Cards went 0-4 last year, straight-up and against the betting number, and was outscored 100-53. Certainly the NFL betting trend shows that Whisenhunt does not put a premium on strong performances in August

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